Weather Router Says Hurricane May Pass Closer To Land, Possibly With Matthew-Like Results
Chris Parker in broadcast mode.

Chris Parker in broadcast mode.

Chris Parker of the Marine Weather Center has a great reputation as a weather router. He's a TrawlerFest instructor and has a pair of comprehensive weather courses for boaters about to come online at boatersuniversity.com.

Parker has been giving free, live Hurricane Dorian analyses every day at 6 p.m. on the Marine Weather Center Facebook page. You can rewatch the analysis quoted here by visiting the Mariner Weather Center's page on Facebook.

During Wednesday's session Parker, displaying the National Hurrican Center "cone of uncertainty" below, said he disagreed with the projected track.

"We have some disagreements with this," Parker said. "We at Marine Weather Center are just not sure when Dorian is going to take that northeastern turn. We think Dorian is going to get a lot closer to than indicated here. And that would make a landfall of the northern eye wall in the Charleston area. It would be really similar to what Hurricane Matthew did, and we think Dorian could inflict the same sort of damage or potentially greater damage."

"We have some disagreements with this," Parker said. "We at Marine Weather Center are just not sure when Dorian is going to take that northeastern turn. We think Dorian is going to get a lot closer to than indicated here. And that would make a landfall of the northern eye wall in the Charleston area. It would be really similar to what Hurricane Matthew did, and we think Dorian could inflict the same sort of damage or potentially greater damage."

Parker said the Hurricane Center might be too optimistic. He said the track might run closer to the coast of the Carolinas in general and Charleston in particular. If this were to happen, the damage could be worse than that caused by Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Part of the reason, Parker said, is that Dorian is moving much more slowly than Matthew and would linger delivering high winds and flooding (such as depicted in that North Carolina image from Matthew at top).

"The way you fared in Matthew is probably how you will fare with Dorian," Parker said, speaking in general.

Parker said the difference between his projected track and that of the Hurricane Center might only be 20 or 30 miles, but even this small difference would have significant consequences.

He also said to expect greater than forecast storm surge in some areas of the Carolinas such as Wrightsville Beach, where he predicts 10 feet of storm surge. He also predicted the possibility of 10 feet of surge for Charleston, more than forecast by the National Hurricane Center. "I think the NHC is substantially underforecasting the winds for Charleston," Parker said.

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